I stumbled upon an interesting article today. Apparently scientists have found a planet which is potentially habitable because it is the right distance from its star for liquid water to exist. The story itself is fascinating to me, but I couldn't help but notice the following quote from one of the scientists who made the discovery:
"Our findings offer a very compelling case for a potentially habitable planet," said Steven Vogt, professor of astronomy and astrophysics at UC Santa Cruz, in a statement released by NASA. "The fact that we were able to detect this planet so quickly and so nearby tells us that planets like this must be really common."
Ten points to the first person who can tell me what is wrong with that statement.
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I think this popular error may have roots the "Drake Equation," some particularly hoaky "science" that pop scientist Carl Sagan championed over the years to calculate the probability of intelligent life evolving on another planet. If the Drake Equation model were true, then Seven Vogt may have a leg to stand on with his quote.
ReplyDeleteBut of course, it is pseudo-science. Sagan admits as much, saying that the Drake Equation is just an interesting thought experiment. But others seem to quickly forget the caveat.
Drake Equation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
By the way, I was at Michael Crichton's talk at Caltech that criticized this equation specifically, and this type of "science" in general. (See section "Criticism" in the Wikipedia article)
ReplyDeletehttp://xkcd.com/718/
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